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Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.

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“Why not use the dataset I already have on gambling sites to map the most problematic ones, identify how they are connected and build a deeper picture of the networks behind them?” That thought process eventually gave birth to Trace2Trace.

Trace2Trace is relatively new, but Madsen says its underlying dataset has already grown to around 620,000. And it continues to grow, highlighting the scale of illegal operations in the gambling industry.

“We receive around 7,000 domains a day on average through the lists we monitor, including new and cloned sites,” he explains.

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“So that is the delta we have to close by delivering a better product and better operational intensity in our sports business.”

Bengtsson said momentum from the summer’s World Cup had continued into the second half of the year.

“The World Cup, as you know, is largely a customer acquisition opportunity, and it was also combined with a good turnover period for us,” he outlined. “Yes, that has continued.