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He was also fined $71,356.
Kalshi’s compliance department uncovered a series of large trades made by Santos throughout February 2026 involving contracts that would pay out based on whether he attended the State of the Union address on 24 February.
The exchange reported that Santos then issued public statements regarding his attendance, some deemed false or misleading, that were deliberately aimed at influencing the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts connected to his attendance.
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Fabio Macorin, deputy secretary of the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), has been elected to the International Association of Gaming Regulators (IAGR) board of trustees.
He brings extensive experience in law enforcement, the prevention of financial crimes, regulatory oversight and the development of Brazil’s newly regulated betting market.
At the SPA, Macorin plays a leading role in the implementation, supervision and enforcement of Brazil’s regulatory framework for betting.
How to play Burning Classics
Prediction market volume attributable to “takers”—recreational and retail traders who pull liquidity from exchanges—is forecast to reach $190 billion this year.
That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.
